Вестник нефтегазовой отрасли КазахстанаВестник нефтегазовой отрасли Казахстана2707-42262957-806XKMG Engineering10902610.54859/kjogi109026Analysis and evaluation of the influence of the geological-physical and technological characteristics of deposits on the efficiency indicators of geological and technical measuresЖантуринЖомарт Кайржанович<p>Candidate of Technical Sciences, Associate Professor at Atyrau University of Oil and Gas named after S. Utebayev</p>aing-zhomart@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0009-0007-4944-1850AbishevMurat N<p>Candidate of Technical Sciences, Associate Professor at Atyrau University of Oil and Gas named after S. Utebayev</p>m_abishev_nik@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0009-0001-5793-3800ArystanaliyevYessengeldi U<p>Candidate of Technical Sciences, Professor at Atyrau University of Oil and Gas named after S. Utebayev</p>esen-65@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-7219-2038ZaidemovaZhanylsyn K<p>Candidate of Technical Sciences, Professor at Atyrau University of Oil and Gas named after S. Utebayev</p>b.n.m.99@list.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6628-024XMedetovShokhan M<p>Candidate of Technical Sciences, Associate Professor at Atyrau University of Oil and Gas named after S. Utebayev</p>medetov.76@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0009-0002-0137-228XNCJSC “Atyrau University of Oil and Gas named after Safi Utebayev”832907202609092026Copyright © , Жантурин Ж.К., Abishev M.N., Arystanaliyev Y.U., Zaidemova Z.K., Medetov S.M.<p><strong>ABSTRACT </strong></p> <p><strong>Background:</strong> Maintaining and increasing the efficiency of oil field development and oil production intensity is directly connected to the level of application of geological and technical measures (GTM) in production. The precise application of specific GTM types depends on a systematic approach to their selection. However, in practice, the selection of GTMs is often made without sufficient research and relies on incomplete information from production operations. Consequently, when these methods are applied to other fields with similar geological and physical properties, the efficiency frequently falls below expectations. Therefore, the accurate selection of GTM types, the development of scientifically grounded methods for predicting outcomes, and post-application evaluation remain critical challenges.</p> <p><strong>Aim:</strong> To assess the effectiveness of GTM based on geological, physical, and technological data from specific fields; to enable the prediction and assessment of GTM efficiency in cases of insufficient information; and to develop a mathematical framework for such predictions.</p> <p><strong>Materials and Methods:</strong> The study used materials collected from the West Kazakhstan oil fields (Tengiz and West Prorva). Sixteen indicators determining the effectiveness of enhanced oil recovery (EOR)—such as total formation thickness and oil-saturated formation—were identified, along with five key metrics (efficiency coefficient, additional oil produced, etc.) for evaluating EOR effectiveness. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to reduce the dimensionality of the input variables. Given the multi-criteria nature of GTM efficiency assessment, fuzzy set theory was also employed.</p> <p><strong>Results:</strong> Based on initial data from the fields, the indicators affecting GTM efficiency were identified and their mathematical models were developed. Using PCA, the 16 input variables were consolidated into specific factors while preserving the full information content. Subsequently, fuzzy set theory allowed for the development of a methodology to predict the technological efficiency of each GTM type under conditions of initial uncertainty.</p> <p><strong>Conclusion:</strong> The proposed methodological approach serves as an effective tool for systematic analysis, forecasting, and optimization of geological and technical measure programs. Its implementation in geological services reduces the risk of erroneous technological decisions and facilitates a significant increase in oil recovery factor.</p>geological and technical measures, principal component analysis, GTM efficiency indicators, fuzzy set theory, oil production forecasting.геологиялық-техникалық іс-шаралар, негізгі компоненттер әдісі, ГТШ тиімділігінің көрсеткіштері, анық емес жиындар теориясы, мұнай өндіруді болжау.геолого-технические мероприятия, метод главных компонент, показатели эффективности ГТМ, теория нечетких множеств, прогнозирование добычи нефти.1.Zhanturin Zh.K., Arystanaliev E.U., Zaidemova Zh.K., et al. A review of methods for assessing the effectiveness of geological and technical measures in oil and gas production //. Bulletin of the NGOs of the Republic of Kazakhstan. 2024. Volume 6, No. 4. pp. 128-154.2.Zhanturin Zh.K., Kanbetov A.Sh., Musrepaova A.T. 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